Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.470379 0.547998 0.631742 0.728490 0.836847 0.954131 1.090335
2025-03-23 0.357961 0.458825 0.575829 0.720372 0.892850 1.090747 1.333581
2025-03-30 0.254255 0.360132 0.492424 0.667092 0.888611 1.157015 1.503307
2025-04-06 0.185953 0.292093 0.435094 0.636634 0.907500 1.252701 1.718769
2025-04-13 0.133403 0.234233 0.381298 0.602804 0.918075 1.339900 1.934324
2025-04-20 0.101369 0.198905 0.352598 0.599051 0.968750 1.485397 2.241268
2025-04-27 0.074847 0.165625 0.320826 0.586136 1.005442 1.616705 2.543556
2025-05-04 0.056864 0.142129 0.300121 0.587209 1.063484 1.785003 2.914578
2025-05-11 0.042553 0.121080 0.279229 0.584740 1.116170 1.951416 3.299018
2025-05-18 0.028949 0.096182 0.245294 0.553757 1.118724 2.042215 3.580054
2025-05-25 0.018710 0.074208 0.211077 0.515505 1.103485 2.103355 3.821383
2025-06-01 0.013064 0.061419 0.192940 0.504943 1.135867 2.245322 4.202184
2025-06-08 0.008564 0.049327 0.173318 0.489088 1.159856 2.381701 4.596107
2025-06-15 0.006311 0.043512 0.167912 0.503639 1.245350 2.634266 5.204889
2025-06-22 0.003803 0.033853 0.148044 0.480368 1.252046 2.747712 5.588441
2025-06-29 0.002371 0.027415 0.135014 0.470743 1.286011 2.914935 6.079280
2025-07-06 0.001375 0.021622 0.121171 0.455499 1.305643 3.057299 6.537604
2025-07-13 0.000893 0.018541 0.115711 0.462073 1.375488 3.303113 7.200089
2025-07-20 0.000527 0.015314 0.107809 0.459614 1.424132 3.511506 7.808425
2025-07-27 0.000325 0.013187 0.103525 0.467325 1.498690 3.779060 8.545369
2025-08-03 0.000187 0.011160 0.098386 0.471050 1.564080 4.033275 9.273116
2025-08-10 0.000077 0.008401 0.086890 0.449728 1.562135 4.145443 9.734295
2025-08-17 0.000024 0.005989 0.074628 0.421152 1.536025 4.202728 10.091198